Will We Sell The Job News - Or Is It A Bear Trap?

For the third day in a row, we had some mildly positive action, which means that the IWM is now up 15 of the last 17 days.  The senior indices haven't done quite as well, but they sure aren't pulling back much. Once again, we had good breadth, but volume was lighter on the Nax.  The higher dollar was the biggest negative today, but market players shrugged it off and loaded up on retailers instead. Buyers continued to chase some very extended charts and didn't seem to be at all worried about the jobs report that is due in the morning. The Obama administration has already lowered expectations with comments that poor weather may affect the numbers. I don't know if that is true, but it makes it easy for the bulls to dismiss a soft number. So the pattern of an extended market just becoming more extended continues. With the way retail stocks are acting, you would think we are in a booming economy that is creating tons of new jobs rather than losing them at a slower rate. The best way to deal with this is to ignore any logic that leads you to a bearish conclusion. This market has very stubborn and persistent buyers, and they are not going away just because some bears happen to believe that the economy isn't really all that great. We are set up fairly well for a sell-the-news reaction to the jobs report in the morning, but I'm not sure that's going to happen.  My gut tells me we won't sell off tomorrow.....If the news is better than expected and we gap up, many technical dudes out there will definitely be looking at selling and shorting though.....