Friday, March 19, 2010

A Few Tech Items

SPWRA got smacked hard today on terrible guidance; SPWRA's current quarter isn't relevant to the long term thesis. With that being said, I'll bide my time to see if the $18.50 area holds. That's a double bottom and if it breaks, I'd rather scale in at $17.50 and every dollar below that......

Not tech, but MS still looks like a steal here. I see $40 before $25.....

I will not be following PALM any longer and feel that a buyout is their last probable chance at stock performance glory. The AAPL/GOOG mobile device machine is in the full death squeeze for the industry. Is RIMM next?  I think we will need at least 3-4 more quarters to know for sure (and I do think it will report strongly in a couple weeks), but I'm more inclined to start looking at RIMM mostly on the short side now. Especially on moves in the $80's and higher. The only other big shop I see competing is NOK, and it has to prove it via nanotechnology and the Morph or whatever it will be calling their space age phone in a couple years.

Again, not tech, but I'm warming up to BAC again, though I wish we had FASB clarity. It strikes me, with all the populist/media ire directed at GS, or Bernanke, or even folks like Dick Fuld at LEH -- where is the ire at the board at FASB as they caused far, far more real damage with FAS 157 than almost any other factor?

The shorts will be wrong as long as they are fighting my highly variant thesis of higher than "normal" post recession economic growth. However, all they need is a bad FASB decision combined with a transaction tax and they will have a massive bear market again to short to their hearts content. And I will be with them!

By no means am I wishing for the above scenario to come to pass.  However, I'm sadly prepared for it.

long AAPL