Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Still Chugging Along...

Although the gains weren't that big, the winning streak continues. The IWM is now up 19 out of 21 days and for eight days straight.  GOOG was the main driving force behind the Nasdaq 100 today, the second-best index of late after the Russell 2000. The S&P500 is next and it stalled right under the recent highs at 1150. The DJIA is bringing up the rear, but is in very good shape, at just under 10,600. All these indices are strong, but they are also all extended to some degree, though that has been the case for a while and is starting to sound like a quaint, but meaningless label. Breadth was quite good once again, with about 3,800 gainers to about 1,950 decliners. Volume even picked up today, which is something we haven't seen too often during this run. 

Even though the action was very upbeat, there wasn't any group that really distinguished itself. Semiconductors and small banks were the leaders, but oil bounced around and there wasn't any group that market players chased aggressively. This whole run over the past month hasn't really had any red-hot pockets of momentum. A lot of things have acted quite well, but there isn't any one group that is attracting the hot-money players. Another positive day obviously doesn't do much to alleviate the overbought technical conditions, but the pace of the advance has slowed a little and that is helpful. The market doesn't have to go down for us to become less extended. All we need is it for it to churn for a while and not do a whole lot. That sort of consolidation is healthy, because it allows for stocks to move from weaker hands inclined to take profits into stronger hands trying to build longer-term positions. When we don't consolidate, there is a greater risk that a flurry of profit taking will hit and produce a sharp dip lower, keeping new buyers on the sidelines for a while. Although all those up days in a row sound very good, it isn't an easy market to navigate for the active trader. We'll have a shake-up at some point, but for now we just have to keep chugging along and stay very vigilant......

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