Last Thursday's low may now be important for many market players. I know we had the "whoosh" on Friday, but it was short-lived. Also, the close on Thursday was tested before the phantom bull stampede late Friday afternoon.
I was looking for a test of $104.55 on the SPY last week, and we came close on Friday, but didn't get it. The way we closed today, it felt like we were setting up for that test.....
RIG really fell off a cliff today. If it wasn't clear before today, it should be now: This is a falling knife. Volume has dried up, which is good, but if I had to give a bottom where I expect the knife to hit the floor, it would be $47. However, the situation in the Gulf of Mexico is a pure disaster. Although BP yielding more than 8% should be taken here. I think the dividend's quite safe.
Other than these little blips ("flash crash," phantom stampede), the technicals are showing signs of life. Their reliability, at least for me, has been increasing, so use 'em while you got 'em.
Where would I hide right now? AAPL, cash, silver, some U.S. dollars, and maybe even a small volatility play. There is a lot that I don't like, and today didn't make it any better. Maybe my rose-tinted lenses are broken, or maybe the glare of reality is just letting me see clearly, but for now, the path of least resistance is down......
long AAPL
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