Friday, May 16, 2008

today's market

once again, a strong, late-day rally appears just as some minor cracks begin to appear in the indices. just like yesterday, what looked like a rather mundane day turned giddy as late-day buyers jumped in aggressively.

yesterday, many commentators explained the market rally as being due to relief over a pullback in oil, but the reverse wasn't the case today. today, when oil jumped up sharply, the market ignored it, and the indices held up well overall. part of that is because oils and cyclical plays resumed their very strong momentum and are a big component of the major indices, but it is interesting that the market seems to consider oil as important only when it is pulling back. when sentiment is this positive, then all news is good news.

it has been a good week for the bulls, and with the indices above some key technical levels, many are feeling extremely confident and looking for more upside. there is some upside momentum, but it is extremely difficult to make new buys unless you are willing to chase breakouts and new highs.

many are looking for the market to rest after the big run we've had off the march lows, and when that doesn't happen, market players get anxious and make some new buys out of fear of being left behind. undisciplined buying usually proves costly, but in the short term it sure feels good to be part of the party.

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