Wednesday, May 21, 2008

a few thoughts on vrgy

piggybacking off gs' chip call from monday, vrgy looks like a good bet in the back half of the year: vrgy was spun out of A in 2006 and is primarily an advanced test systems and solutions provider to the broad semi-space. for the most part it has been producing solid EPS results as a sole operator. its last quarter was weaker, probably due to weaker results in their memory end markets, but they are not alone in this regard. recent reports seem to indicate that the memory biz may be broadly hitting a bottom or at least a slowing in the pace of declining results.

additionally, vrgy has a very strong balance sheet and they are selling for just a bit over 3 times cash and investments, as well as selling for under two times sales while producing solid EPS results. those are cheap metrics unless you believe they will suffer sales and earnings declines over a sustained period. at these valuation levels (and high cash position), the stock may also be subject to potential M&A activity.

over time i think vrgy can make a substantial move higher. if any material weakness occurs as a result of tonight's call, i will start to think seriously about owning this one.

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