Friday, May 2, 2008

today's market action - kind of tricky, definitely frustrating

had visions of a nice, up day. didn't happen though. should have known; as is so often the case, a euphoric open gave way to aggressive selling. while the jobs news this morning was quite good, the market had already made a big move following the fed interest-rate cut and, for those that believe, conditions were too technically extended for us to run higher.

even though the open was sold hard, the indices still managed a generally positive day. the nas lagged and breadth was just about flat, but there was enough underlying buying interest that the selling never really picked up.

this week was particularly tricky, as the market couldn't make up its mind whether it really wanted to support a rotation out of oils, agriculture, steel and cyclicals and into financials, retail and technology. tuesday and thursday the rotation played out, while on wednesday and friday, it reversed. that makes for some tough trading if you are trying to stick with market leadership.

with the fed out of the way, major earning reports over and no big economic reports on the horizon, the market is going to be looking for catalysts to drive the next move. seasonally, things begin to weaken at this point, but the market's recent strength has bolstered sentiment and is causing plenty of worry about being underinvested.

for those that trade, doing so in a disciplined manner is always important, but i think it will be particularly important as the market plays out in the weeks ahead.

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