Right Now, This Market Stinks.......

Although a number of market pros dismissed this morning's consumer confidence numbers as irrelevant, the report provided a convenient excuse to sell a market that was technically extended on low volume. We also had some strong overhead resistance around 1108, which is the 50-day simple moving average of the S and P 500.  So we finally have a pullback after a 10-day bounce, which brings us to the eternal daily question: Now what? Do we continue to correct, or is this little dip going to draw in the dip-buyers and quickly put us back on the fast track to the January highs?  Who knows.  Many are looking for more downside in the near term, which means it probably won't happen.  

However, we went up straight up on low volume, and that means we have very little underlying support, and that it makes it easier for us to slip back down. That is the danger of a V-ish bounce like we have had over the last 10 days. Breadth was about 2 to 1 negative, but all major sectors were in the red. I'm not sure where the strength was today, because the various watch lists on my screen all were extremely negative.  Especially AAPL, which is the one I'm really interested in.  

The dollar was stronger today and closed at its highs, and that was a negative for oil, commodities and gold. Without those groups, and with some severe selling in financials and semiconductors, there wasn't much that was very pretty today. This market is very used to quick snapbacks, and that increases the danger that dip-buyers will jump in too early and find themselves trapped.  It's certainly possible that the character of this market has changed from what it was last year, and we shouldn't expect the same sharp V-moves or aggressive dip-buys. The bulls did pull off another pretty good V-move over the last couple weeks, but it is fizzling right at the 50-day moving average, and that is a change. The bears are back on the field, and it may be time to play some better defense.........

long AAPL