Needham analyst Charlie Wolf this morning upped his price target on Buy-rated AAPL to $280, from $235, noting that Mac and iPhone sales are materially higher than when he made his last attempt to value the company back in September. He also thinks the iPad should make a material contribution to the company’s valuation.
As part of his valuation process, Wolf offers some eye-opening long-term sales forecasts for Apple products, with a startling vision of how big iPhone sales can get, in particular:
Here’s a look at Wolf’s 10-year forecast for iPhone unit sales:
* 2009: 25.5 million units (actual)
* 2010: 37.2 million
* 2011: 48.5 million
* 2012: 60.0 million
* 2013: 72.4 million
* 2014: 85.4 million
* 2015: 98.2 million
* 2016: 109.3 million
* 2017: 120.6 million
* 2018: 131.7 million
* 2019: 142.5 million
The final year number assumes the global smart phone market grows from 170.2 million units in 2009 to 569.8 million in 2019, and that Apple’s market share grows from 15% to 25%.
He sees a steady ramp in iPad sales as well, forecasting unit sales of 2 million this year, 6 million in 2011, and 9 million in 2012, reaching 19.8 million in 2019.
Wolf sees Mac ships growing from 9.5 million units this year to 24.9 million in 2019.
On the other hand, he expects iPod sales to fall to fall from 53.2 million this year to 35.5 million in 2019.
So of course Apple today is down over $1, and still trades for less than $200 - it basically trades at an astounding .35 to .45 PEG. Someday the fundamentals, the earnings, will matter. But not today.
long AAPL
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