Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Relative Correction In Some Stocks Is Nearing 20%.....

I've seen lots of commentary on iPad margins and room for price cuts. I think it's way too early to bake in lower prices. What AAPL is simply doing is making it clear that they will make this product (the iNetbook-killer) available to the masses. As previously mentioned, upon my initial look I immediately moved to a view that they would sell north of 7 million units in the first year, which was a variant high estimate at the time. Subsequently, folks have been playing the "who can have the highest estimate of first-year sales game." I won't waste my time with that absurdity, but I feel that the "iNetbook-killer" will take similar, if not more market share in that category as the iPhone has in smartphones......

ARRS' cable bandwidth is on the move and the company reports tonight. I expect a quarter of at least as good as HLIT. With the recent pullback, they trade under a 10 PE and at just 4 times net cash.

FNSR is on the move today as they see Q3 revenues well ahead of its prior guide. Is the optical sector finally rationalized to the point where we see real earnings and pricing power finally out of the FO sector? If so, then FNSR is still very cheap.

Regarding MU, the buy of Numonyx will be rewarded; prices under $8 will get me quite interested in MU. BIDU just wasn't that good; maybe a good short candidate.....

I'm still quite amazed, really, that AAPL is trading below $200. That's a PEG of about .35 to .45, which is ridiculous in my opinion.

long AAPL

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