AAPL Research Note

Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi this morning lifted his EPS forecasts for AAPL for the September 2010 fiscal year - and for FY 2011 - to reflect “upward pressure” on gross margins from a mix shift to the iPhone.For FY 2010, he goes to $11.99 from $11.67; for FY 2011, he now sees $13.73, up from $12.72.

Sacconaghi thinks that iPhone revenues will grow from about 30% of Apple revs in FY 2009 to 45%-50% in FY 2011. He estimates that iPhone gross margins were 58% in ‘09, well above the company average of 40.9%. If you assume flat iPhone gross margins and ASPs, corporate gross margins would lift by 400-500 basis points, he notes.The Street consensus, he says, is for gross margins to be down about 10 basis points over the next two years. For that to be accurate, he says, would require a $100-plus drop in average iPhone prices over the next two years, and a 700-plus basis points drop in iPhone gross margins. He thinks that is not realistic.

Sacconaghi is also now calculating the iPad into his forecasts: he sees sales of 2.2 million units in FY 2010, and 6.8 million in FY 2011.The analyst expects iPhone sales to hit 45-50 million units in FY 2011, up from 20.7 million in FY 2009, and 8.7 million in FY Q1 2010.

long AAPL