Thursday, February 25, 2010

CDS; The Market, Etc.

Calling Susan Powter:  Someone must stop this CDS insanity! If I was Greece (or any of the PIIG countries for that matter) I would simply declare all CDS contracts that do not have a notional underlying interest (in other words, insurable interest) in Greek debt to be unlawful and therefore nullified.

Again, someone has to try and put a stop to the CDS insanity. Why not Greece and/or some other country?  While this would not be the end of the story, the legal structure of the CDS would at least be examined and I think the powers that be would realize the importance of insurable interest in the CDS market, just as with the life insurance market......


As far as the market, once again I think market rules (which are a real nagative), political head winds and fears of PIIGS are being magnified beyond any semi-rational measure. Moreover; the absolute futures driven nature of this move feels too contrived of late as we sell off on these one off numbers that are well within normal volatility for the given data points.

I think it's very clear we will be adding meaningful jobs quite soon. In an improving labor market, jobless claims rise initially while new jobs are added. I continue to see endless sources stating with fervent vigor that we are still in recession, or depression or we will double dip.

The more I look the more I'm reminded of 1997 and 1991 and the perceived tumult surrounding those periods.

Lastly, there has been a surge in talk about the death of buy and hold. Something I have never been a big fan of. But like I do with most other things investing related, I lean to the variant view. So the more I hear about the death of buy and hold the more likely I'll be to start embracing that as part of my strategy......

No comments: