Monday, April 21, 2008

some thoughts on stocks worth owning

it seems like v and ma are up most days; these companies cannot convince the shorts that they have nothing to do with retail and everything to do with the worldwide trend toward plastic not paper.

second, they are fabulous core positions for big mutual funds, and the funds come in every day looking to find sellers to build up positions that are still way too small.

third, they count as financials so therefore allow you to "weight" financials in your portfolio -- still ridiculously high at about 18% of the S&P -- without getting hit by all the ugly sticks, including the ncc's and the wm's.

these two stocks are classic demutualizations, where you have these companies not run for streamlined profit that are suddenly on a mission to show profits -- think cme and pru if you want the obvious ones. wasn't nyx supposed to be one of those?

visa, in particular, is a bit mystifying. it is more expensive than ma, but because of the dollar price of ma and the stark realization that you missed the first 180 points, v looks like the horse to bet on. i like both of them, but think that the ma numbers are still way too low.

do your own DD, but don't be afraid to jump in. they are the cheapest way to play the financials if only because they have growth.

sgp is probably going up simply because there is a growing recognition that the amount of decline in revenues for Vytorin forecast by mrk just isn't that great, despite how much the media is making of it. this is the quarter where Vytorin is no longer two-thirds of SGP's profits because of the Organon acquisition.

the absurdity of pm's stall seems downright silly. this stock is much too cheap vs. its growth rate, but people want to see the quarter first.

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