today's economic data have not influenced expectations much regarding the 4/30 fomc meeting, where market participants are placing 48% odds on a 50-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate, up from 46% on friday.
for the 6/25 fomc meeting, the market is priced for 90% odds of a cumulative 50 basis points in cuts, the same as friday.
for the 8/5 fomc meeting, the market is priced for 100% odds of a cumulative 50 basis points in cuts, and 4% odds of a cumulative 75 basis points in cuts, the same as friday.
hence, with slim odds of a cut built into the august fomc meeting and no odds of a cut seen beyond that month, the market is essentially priced for the fed to end its cuts in june.
the market is priced for greater than 50% odds that a single 25-basis-point hike will occur in the first quarter of next year.
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