here's why i think aapl will soar in 2008 and 2009 - possibly even double from here:
companies as large as aapl don't often keep the innovative fires stoked, but aapl's different, i believe, because of jobs. he's always in a relentless pursuit of the win, like a shark on the hunt. jobs simply never lets up.
the ipod is not yet a 'mature' product. since mid 2004, aapl's been selling 4 million a month, having penetrated 60 million households. but i think the addressable market is 1 billion, and, with a $50 minimum profit on every unit straight off the top, that's possibly worth $28-$30 billion to aapl's earnings over the next decade.
there's also the 100 GB widescreen video ipod, apple tv, movie downloads, and more.
the itunes store continues to be a game-changer. three billion downloads and counting. traditional CDs are of course history. i think the downloads are worth about .60/share to aapl's earnings this year. itunes changed the music industry's antiquated distribution system. also, could imovies negatively impact nflx? nflx relies so very heavily on the post office.
the iphone, and it's a design beauty. i think it could attract up to 17 million buyers this year, adding $1.50 - $1.75 to apple's earnings. aapl is recognizing iphone revenues, not as a $399/sale, but as $16.65/month for 24 months, the
minimum length of the AT&T contract. this of course deliberately low balls the impact of the phone. new apps, a 16GB version, a 3G model, and new markets in china, thailand and canada are yet to be exploited. and all connected to the web.
the new mac and leopard os could allow aapl to double its share of the pc market.
aapl stores have really redefined the retail industry, becoming magnets for traffic and money. i can attest to this fact, as i experienced sifnificant wait times in aapl's store in las vegas in january. and we're supposed to be in a recession, right? aapl owns and controls the customer relationship.
momentum investing's been so wrong so far in 2008. aapl's down from 200 to below 120 to about 126 now. this company, in my opinion, just has too much earnings power to stay at these levels much longer.