i think if jpm buys bsc at about 30, it'll work out great for jpm. bsc's book value is most likely at least 75 a share.
friday around 8:15 central time, i turned on cnbc to see the s and p 500 futures up 17 points and faber showing me a pre-market stock chart that reflected a 10% increase from where they closed yesterday in shares of troubled brokerage firm bsc after news had just broke of the injection of capital from the ny fed via jpm. alas, a few minutes later, the early gains were evaporating and the dow was soon down close to 300 points. just another illustration of why the only problem with market timing is getting the timing right!
here's a more detailed description: (times eastern)
08:03 am: S&P futures vs fair value: -9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.8. Futures point to a lower start as market participants await the February CPI report that is set for release at 8:30 ET.
08:30 am: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. Futures spike on a better than expected inflation reading; now point to a positive start to the trading day. Just reported, February CPI was unchanged, compared to the expected rise of 0.3%. Excluding food & energy, CPI was also flat, which was less than the expected rise of 0.2%. That leaves CPI up 4.0% year over year, and core CPI up 2.3% year-over-year.
09:00 am: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.8. Futures continue to suggest a positive open thanks to the better than expected inflation reading.
09:15 am: S&P futures vs fair value: +15.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.2. Futures extend their gains. JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will provide financing for Bear Stearns as necessary. Shares of Bear Stearns spiked in pre-market trading.
09:45 am: It was shaping up to be a negative open until a better than expected inflation reading caused the market to rebound. Stocks are trading with modest gains.
then of course the market became unnerved by the bsc news. it lost 47% of its already-depressed value, after seeing more than 186 million of its shares change hands yesterday. rumors became fact at bsc, as there was a virtual run on the bank at bear, and the virtually unprecedented move by the fed, via jpm. with book value still supposedly in excess of $80 per share, i hope jpm buys bsc here at 30 or better. dimon has always coveted the prime brokerage business, which hasn't gotten off the ground yet at jpm.