rate cut odds

this morning's weak retail sales report and continued elevated levels of jobless claims have pushed rate cut odds higher on the day. the market is priced for 88% odds of a 75-basis-point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting, up from 72% yesterday.

for the April 30 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for 100% odds of a cumulative 100 basis points in cuts (a 2% fed funds rate) and for 8% odds of 125 basis points in cumulative cuts. yesterday, the market saw 84% odds of a 100 basis point cut only.

for the 6/25 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for 100% odds of a cumulative 100 basis points in cuts and 64% odds of a cumulative 125 basis points in cuts, up from 30% odds on wednesday.