this morning's weak retail sales report and continued elevated levels of jobless claims have pushed rate cut odds higher on the day. the market is priced for 88% odds of a 75-basis-point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting, up from 72% yesterday.
for the April 30 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for 100% odds of a cumulative 100 basis points in cuts (a 2% fed funds rate) and for 8% odds of 125 basis points in cumulative cuts. yesterday, the market saw 84% odds of a 100 basis point cut only.
for the 6/25 FOMC meeting, the market is priced for 100% odds of a cumulative 100 basis points in cuts and 64% odds of a cumulative 125 basis points in cuts, up from 30% odds on wednesday.