Friday, September 17, 2010


Very weak confidence number today.

Buy TBT.

RIMM - Software revenue missed estimates, net new adds are slowing, and there are signs of a cumbersome inventory build-up.

Yes, device shipments improved, owing to the Torch launch that contributed to a greater-than-expected build-up in channel inventory, but there was little improvement in other metrics.

Indeed, weaker-than-expected software revenue, a slowing of net new adds (as the company's non-consumer business succumbs to competition) and signs of too large of an inventory build-up represent cautionary factors in the quarters ahead.

Sometime in the next few months, rising owners' equivalent rent will beget a surprise to the upside in the CPI.

I believe there will be a surprise to the upside in the CPI sometime in the next few months.

That is because the single largest component of the CPI is owners' equivalent rent.

Since May, rents have been steadily rising, and based on the earnings reports and conference calls at most apartment REITs, this trend in strengthening rents has accelerated recently.

Few are focusing on this.

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