Friday, September 17, 2010

The Technical Analysts Wanted This Kind Of Day/Week; And We Got It

It was a very choppy week for the market, but a generally positive one. After the gap-up open on Monday morning, the indices didn't make much, if any, additional progress but the market was overbought and five days of consolidation is what we need if we are going to make a good attempt at taking out the June and August highs -- the major technical hurdle to the upside.

If you are looking for negatives, the worst aspect of the action this week is that breadth was poor and the strength in the indices was primarily the result of a small group of big-caps, primarily AAPL. It was a narrow market, and there wasn't any clear leadership or major pockets of leadership like we had the week before.

Technically, the major indices look fine. They are holding important support at the 200-day simple moving average and have consolidated gains quite nicely this week. It sets up a very interesting battle for next week. The bulls have the edge, but some of the weakness under the surface and the narrow leadership is supportive of the bears. Economic data are going to be of particular importance, and with sentiment becoming more positive recently, the chances of disappointment are higher.

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