The indices haven't made much upward progress lately, but they sure continue to hold up very well. The bears are unable to generate much to the downside although the upside momentum does seem to be cooling. Key stocks such as PCLN, CRM and BUCY haven't been able to push to new highs and are now showing signs of rolling over.
I suspect some end-of-the-quarter window dressing is helping to hold us up, but that pretty much ends today as manipulation on the last day of the quarter is a little too blatant for most funds. The S&P 500 is still lingering right under that 1150 area and we are using up a lot of energy trying to push through. At some point market players will start thinking, "If we can't take them up, maybe I should take my gains now and not risk letting them slip away."
The ideal bearish scenario would be a break over 1150 that squeezes shorts and triggers buy stops and then fails. The trapped bulls would then hurry to the exits and give us a reversal. That is how I see a top possibly playing out, but we have to break that 1150 level before I'd give that theory more weight.
Overall, the technical condition of the major indices remains fine but, many individual stocks have been unable to make much progress lately. It isn't negative action but, if we don't push higher again soon, I'll be looking for the selling pressure to increase.
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