Thoughts

I am not in the double-dip camp.

I think the current economic slowdown is just that, a slowdown. We had massive injections of both fiscal and monetary stimulus last year, and as those wear off and the economy must begin to stand on its own two feet, it is natural to see the type of slowdown we have witnessed.

I know that housing is still a problem, but that is a function of still being only a couple of years removed from the bubble. I think that the savings rate has reset quickly at higher levels but going forward will not be the same drag on consumer spending now that many households have taken their medicine in terms or shaping up their own personal/household balance sheets. And while everyone was up in arms over the downward revisions to GDP, especially the decrease in net exports, I find a silver lining in the fact that imports rose strongly. To me, that is a sign of strengthening consumer demand (since we import so many things) and represents a loosening of the purse strings. So I am not in the double-dip camp.