Thursday, August 12, 2010

A Tough Market

If you just look at today's close, with the S&P 500 down 5 points and the Nasdaq down 17, the lack of any recovery looks pretty poor after yesterday's carnage. However, if you consider how ugly it looked last night after the CSCO earnings, it ended up actually feeling like a little bit of a victory for the bulls. On one hand it was just a follow-through day to the downside, but on the other hand it was pretty good dead-cat bounce after an ugly open.

No matter how you view it, the big picture didn't improve much today. We closed under the key 1087 level of the S&P 500. Gold mining led, and technology, retail and oil were laggards, and that isn't the sort of leadership we want to see. It wasn't a bad day, since we did manage to recover from the open, but it wasn't good enough to give us much reason to think we are going to easily repair the damage done on Wednesday.

The main driving force for this market in the near term is going to be macroeconomic news, as there doesn't seem like there are going to be a lot of major positives forthcoming in that area.

We broke down on Wednesday, and the action today did nothing to change that fact. I suspect that volume is going to slow down substantially tomorrow and we'll have some choppy action.

No comments: