The most notable thing about the market's action today was that volume was about the lightest we have had all year. The indices were up nicely and we had better than 2-to-1 positive breadth, but the big buyers sure weren't participating.
Since the low last year, we have had an unusual amount of upside action on declining volume. If you have focused on volume levels, you have likely been under-invested as we continued to trend higher.
On the other hand, it is difficult to dismiss the significance of volume. Volume is a measure of the intensity of buying. It gives us greater confidence that momentum will continue when there are a bunch of big institutions gobbling up shares, as opposed to just having a bunch of smaller buyers with little conviction.
It is a moot point anyway. The FOMC interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow, and we are just marking time until that news is out. I believe the policy statement will have significant market impact this time.
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