Thoughts

If one is able to get HPQ in the 30s off this Hurd fiasco, do it.

GS says that it is giving 'no consideration' to going private.

Goldman Sachs moves its 2011 GDP forecast from +2.5% to +1.9% now.

Fed Governor Krueger says we have a 'long way to go' before the economy creates enough jobs.

Medley Global Advisors, a global consulting group, is saying that there will be no second round of stimulus.

We are in both a stockpickers market and an ideal setting for straddle/strangles as well as pair trades.

After the jobs report, I want to repeat my market view.

I offer no extreme view. Perma-bulls and perma-bears will likely both be disappointed in last half of 2010.

The markets will likely hold within a tight trading range (1,025-1,150) for next few months, and maybe through elections.

The downside is protected by low interest rates, quiescent inflation, low expectations (and skepticism) and reasonable valuations.

The upside is contained by an uneven and subpar recovery and the nontraditional headwinds of higher marginal tax rates, policy uncertainty, burdensome and costly regulation, a structural change unemployment and fiscal imbalances (federal, state and local).

If I am correct, we are in both a stockpickers market and an ideal setting for straddle/strangles as well as pair trades.

The weak jobs number is, from my perch, a function of the propensity to hire part-time workers over permanent ones.

It is also supportive of my view that the S&P will be range-bound for the balance of the year.

I don't think today's numbers are a rally killer, but they are supportive of my view that the S&P will be range-bound for the balance of the year (1,025-1,150).

While all eyes are on the jobs report each month, the longer-term employment trends bear watching.

The bigger picture remains that we are in the decade of the temporary worker.

This is yet another nontraditional headwind that routes the domestic economy into a subpar period of growth.

Today's trend of a broader use of temporary workers at the expense of permanent hires is the next generation of business return optimization in an age of uncertainty and a wider-than-usual set of economic outcomes.

There are significant ramifications to this new era of temporary job growth:

* less buoyant and less dynamic domestic economic growth;

* a less consistent rate and more unstable trajectory of domestic economic growth;

* sustained and higher-than-historic corporate profit margins;

* less of a potential corporate commitment to permanent growth initiatives in hirings and in new capital plans;

* fewer inflows into the domestic stock market through 401(k) plans and other retirement programs;

* dampened consumer confidence; and

* greater demand for renting over home ownership.

A structural rise in unemployment in the decade of the temporary worker is yet another nontraditional headwind that routes the domestic economy into a subpar period of growth and that has (and will likely continue) to deflate P/E multiples.