Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Thoughts

Huge tell in bonds today!

My guess is that second-quarter 2010 GDP will be revised from +2.4% to 1.4% to 1.5%.

Today wholesale inventories in June rose by only 0.1% (expectation was +0.5%), which was also far less than assumed in the preliminary GDP report.

My guess is that second-quarter 2010 GDP will be revised from +2.4% to 1.4% to 1.5%.

Anything related to housing -- be it homebuilders, mortgage insurers, banks, remodeling companies -- remain under pressure.

It is reasonable to conclude that there is a large group who expects a double-dip in housing.

Don't count me in that group!

Bonds Not Rallying on Commodity Weakness

Despite a schmeissing in the commodity space, bonds are not rallying.

The market has no memory from day to day.