Tuesday, July 13, 2010


Is AAPL setting up for a spike? I sure hope so, as I've been extremely frustrated with AAPL stock, my largest holding.

On a big up market day, there was notable selling of AAPL on an issue that, while an annoyance that should be fixed, should be more than swamped by the fact that AAPL is selling new phones and "iNetbookkillers" at rates far exceeding anyone's estimates (I would imagine). The iPad's success should have been worth $20 more for the stock price than it currently trades.

And then there's VZ and/or the CDMA launch of the iPhone. I'd be the first to say that I'm surprised AAPL has been slower than I thought to this market. Even so, it's a matter of time before they are selling an extra 4-6mm phones a quarter. As I've often stated, I think the firm VZ deal is worth $15-30 points - if not more.

And what about valuation and valuation less cash? Very, very compelling. AAPL has $46 per share in cash. That puts the forward PE at around 13 times and the PEG less cash under .5 again. After the coming quarter, AAPL will have closer to $50 per share in cash - if not more than that. In a normal, sane, uptick world AAPL would at least have a forward PEG less cash of .8 to 1.0......

With all that stated, however, I'm more aware of AAPL's risks than most. I think Android-based phones will give the iPhone tremendous competition. I also think other computer makers are increasing innovation in many ways. And I really think the Chrome OS will be the fastest growing OS for years.

However, at these prices I'm all in. Further, if one adds in various market dynamics, AAPL likely has at least market-based upside; although I'm betting it's better than that....

Sentiment readings just now coming out show the masses are again more prone to hyperbole and fear than ever before - even in the face of much data pointing to a continued trend of strength. ISM and PMI numbers between 52-56 are still strongly expansionary; and numbers close to or above 60 - like we just had - are seemingly being universally ignored.

And the jobs are coming, even though very few see that happening yet.

And enterprise spending on tech has experienced a decade of underinvestment, and AAPL is better positioned than many to garner enterprise spending increases.

Bottom line, I still view the stock as a $400 stock in $250 clothes.

Oh - I haven't even mentioned earnings that are coming in a week or so.......

long AAPL

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