Friday, November 18, 2011


Here is a summary of the macroeconomic events of the week compiled by Peter Boockvar at MIller Tabak:


1) October retail sales surprise to upside even after taking out gasoline sales.

2) Six-month outlook in both New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indices point to optimism.

3) New York manufacturing current outlook a touch better then estimate.

4) Multifamily construction permits rises to most since October 2008 in response to growing landlord pricing power.

5) NAHB home builder index rises 3 points to 20, two points better than forecast and the best since May 2010.

6) CPI recedes to 3.5% (year over year) from 3.9%, but oil now $10 above October average and rents moving higher.

7) Japan's Q3 GDP rebounds 6% after three quarters of contraction


1) Yields jump in Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands.

2) Euro zone Q3 GDP up just 0.6% annualized (but in line).

3) German ZEW six-month outlook falls to lowest since October 2008.

4) Euro basis swap jumps 20 basis points to highest since December 2008, USD 3-month LIBOR approaching most expensive since July 2009 and swap spreads rise to levels last seen in May 2010.

5) Even with mortgage rates just a few basis points from multi-decade lows, refinancings fall 12.2% to a four-week low and purchases fall 2.3% … but have no fear: Evans and Dudley of the Fed said lower rates from here will help.

6) Not-so-super-committee charade toying around with more than $1.2 trillion of deficit reduction over 10 years -- in the context of a $15 trillion economy and $60 trillion of unfunded liabilities today.

7) U.K. unemployment rate rises to 8.3%, the most since 1996.