Sunday, November 6, 2011

Friday Thoughts

Here is a good summation of this week's macroeconomic events compiled by Miller Tabak's Peter Boockvar:


1. While October job gains were only 80,000, the weakest in four months, the prior two months were revised up by a net 102,000.

2. Initial claims were below 400,000 at 397,000.

3. October vehicle sales were in line with estimates but at the best level since February 2011.

4. China service indices were mixed relative to expectations but both firmly above 50.

5. India manufacturing PMI rises to 52 from 50.4, and South Korea rises a touch, although it remains below 50.

6. The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates 25 basis points to 4.5% to help economic growth, as one of the only responsible central banks in the world gave themselves bullets over the past few years.

7. The European Central Bank cuts rates to help the economy, but inflation is its mandate -- Phillips Curve faith.


1. Within payrolls, the average hourly earnings were up only 1.9% year over year vs. CPI near 4%.

2. ISM manufacturing and services were both slightly below forecasts.

3. U.S. October retail comps were light -- five companies did better than expected, and 13 came in worse than expected.

4. Canada reports an unexpected sharp drop in jobs.

5. Papandreou creates a chaotic situation in Greece with referendum call.

6. The Italian government is losing the faith of the markets to liberalize their economy as yields spike across their yield curves.

7. EFSF can't sell bonds, an embarrassment for this supposed AAA paper.

8. Germany's September factory orders unexpectedly fall for a third straight month.

9. The euro zone manufacturing and services composite index was revised down to 46.5. Italian manufacturing was specifically down to 43.3, and services at 43.9.

10. Euro zone CPI at 3% -- holding at the highest level since October 2008. The ECB bets it's not sustainable with slowing economic growth -- we'll see.

11. The China manufacturing PMI falls to 50.4 from 51.2, and Taiwan drops to 43.7.

12. Bernanke officially lays groundwork for QE3.