Saturday, June 18, 2011

Underlying Fear

The senior indices finished in the green while the Nasdaq struggled.

For the second day in a row we started off on a positive note but couldn't sustain it, reaching a new low in the afternoon before getting a slight uptick at the finish line. For a market that has been as beaten up as this one, and is technically oversold, it is not a good sign that it can't manage some better countertrend movement. There is plenty of bearishness out there, and market players are not well positioned for upside yet. We can't seem to produce even a short-lived squeeze.

The dilemma is that the market is oversold and everyone knows it, but there is still substantial downside momentum. The market is not doing anything to make the folks on the sidelines worry that they are missing out on the big turn.

The bigger fear is the possibility of being caught by bad news out of Europe. I'll bet we will see a gap on Monday, in one direction or the other, due to some development in the Greek sovereign debt crisis this weekend. The market is obviously more worried about bad news than good, and I'm inclined to respect the wisdom of the market beast when it is this contrary.

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