Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Thoughts For Tuesday

Several observations at day's end:

1. The trend remains the bull's friend.

2. That trend has been so powerful that even Nouriel Roubini, David Rosenberg and many other intellectual bears have either given up or receded in their ursine arguments.

3. Ultimately, corporations will be victimized by screwflation, as a higher cost of living for the average Joe reduces demand for products. Yes, for now, corporate profitability is terrific, as Jim Cramer relates. But business' disproportionate share of GDP and profits will come to an end -- it always does -- and I believe it will occur sooner than later. It may come via more populist tax reform and/or through an increase in wages.

4. I believe investors are more heavily invested than many believe. How else to explain the fear that developed in the hedge-fund community prior to the last week's advance?

5. It is nuts to think that the sovereign debt crisis will not affect our economy and markets.

Talking heads continue to believe that the "soft patch" is transitory; the bond market is making a different conclusion.

The U.S. stock market is punch-drunk with liquidity, but with the yield on the 10-year U.S. note yield approaching 3.00% ... who do you want to believe?

So Nouriel has been wrong for over two years now and he finally acquiesces.

A massive restructuring of debt in the eurozone seems inevitable.

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