Tuesday, January 18, 2011

More Rallying

News that AAPL's Steve Jobs is taking a leave of absence looked like it would be a good excuse for some consolidation while we awaited the company's earnings, but this market refused to rest. Apple bounced back, and we went out near the highs of the day. Early in the day, breadth had been poor and small-caps were lagging, but by the finish that was no longer the case.

If this market is going to pull back, then earnings are most likely going to be the catalyst. IBM numbers are out, and that stock is trading up after a 10-cent beat. Cree is down sharply, but that chart signaled that there were problems.

Apple, of course, is well ahead of estimates with EPS of $6.43 versus estimates of $5.43. That looks like it will beat the whisper number as well, and the company even raised guidance a bit for next quarter, which it does not normally do. This looks like a very good report, and I expect to see Apple trading up at least $10 when it reopens. The Nasdaq-100, which is about 20% Apple, is already trading up about 0.5%.

With the good earnings tonight, we should have another gap up tomorrow morning. The bears are going to be hoping and praying for some sort of intraday reversal to finally kick in, but there just aren't any selling catalysts to be found. We have the conditions in place for a sell-the-news reaction, but that game just isn't playing.

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