Thursday, January 6, 2011

Big Whisper Numbers

The action was a bit more sedate today. Breadth came in at 2,300 gainers to 3,300 declines, but the bears still couldn't gain any downside traction. Once again, the stronger dollar played havoc with oil, gold and commodities. Weak same-store sales data hurt retailers, but the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors stepped up. The action in leadership names was mixed, but no real damage was done.

The action tomorrow will be driven by the monthly jobs report. Expectations are quite high after the ADP report on Wednesday morning. I've heard some very big whisper numbers, so the risk of disappointment is quite high. Even if the numbers are solid, one has to wonder how much has been priced in as we've gone straight up for almost five weeks now.

The good news is that the dip-buyers are probably still hungry since they have had so few chances to buy weakness lately. They would probably step up fairly quickly in the event of early weakness on the report. I'm much more concerned about the possibility of a reversal if we have a strong initial response to the news.

No comments: