Monday, January 31, 2011

Dead Cat Bounce?

After a beating like we had on Friday, you have to expect some sort of reflexive rebound. It is the vigor of the oversold bounces that tell you a lot about the market's health, and today's bounce today wasn't particularly lively. Breadth was pretty good on the NYSE due to strength in oil, coal and basic materials, but the Nasdaq lagged as technology stocks didn't do much.

Volume was quite light compared to Friday, which makes the bounce less trustworthy. However, the bulls have the start of a new month tomorrow, which has had a very positive bias.

We'll see if the trend of having strength on the first day of a new month holds. After that, the bulls will have a real test of their resilience. The bounce today was not enough to negate the ugly breakdown on Friday, but a big day tomorrow will definitely cause some consternation for the bears if the seasonal pattern holds.

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