Friday, December 3, 2010

Thoughts From Thursday, 12/2/2010

Goldman Sachs raises 2010 and 2011 S&P profit estimates to $84 and $94 a share.

Thus far, retail same-store sales are dominated by upside surprises.

Rumblings of Global Inflation

We're hearing expectations that Chinese exports will be more expensive in 2011.

Insurance Stocks Are Ramping

Static for Apple TV?

Apple Insider reports that some Apple TV users are having problems.

Fed's Plosser Speaks on the Recovery

Philly Fed President Plosser sees consumer spending as determining the speed of the recovery.

Philly Fed President Charles Plosser in a speech today is referencing the uneven and slow economic recovery. He sees the speed of the recovery a function of consumer spending, and he doesent see an acceleration from current growth rates without an improvement in payroll growth. He sees unemployment rate between 8% and 8.5% by the end of 2011.

Plosser expects cap spending improving, banks easing credit terms and housing/commercial real estate remaining weak.

Sustained deflation is not a concern of his but he remains skeptical that there will be much value added in QE2.

Here are some thoughts from Dan Greenhaus of Miller Tabak on tomorrow's important payroll report:

* Total payrolls should increase in November by 130K.
* Net firing at the state, local and federal level should total about 20K.
* The unemployment rate is likely to hold steady at 9.6% while hours worked should increase.
* Average hourly earnings should rise as well.
* Seasonal adjustments may put upward pressure on reported data.

Stock Traders Whistle Past Rising Oil

I find it remarkable how few are fearful of rising commodities prices.

Crude oil, at $88 a barrel, is but one example, and I find it remarkable, as well, how quickly the animal spirits have been revived for stocks.

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