Monday, December 6, 2010

More Upside?

The market fell off the highs as selling picked up in the last 30 minutes of trading but, overall, market players remain surprisingly sanguine. The jobs report on Friday has been shrugged off, European sovereign debt issues are being ignored and no one seems particularly concerned about Ben Bernanke's rather pessimistic view of the economy.

Market players are seeking safety in precious metals and commodity names, but there isn't any major selling in key sectors right now. Breadth ended slightly negative and regional banks lagged a bit. Oil, retail and technology all come back from some early weakness.

The S&P 500 continues to flirt with its highs of the year but can't quite seem to push through. The market is a bit extended, and that makes it difficult to take out resistance. However, a bit more churning will probably give the market a sufficient base to make the new highs. When we are this close to a new high, we usually push through before the sellers become more aggressive.

There is a large number of extended stocks out there and we really could use a rest if we are going to finish the year on a strong note. However, the lesson this market has taught us is that if you wait for dips, you will likely become a bit frustrated.

There are plenty of bearish arguments out there, but they just don't matter right now. The trend is our friend and it continues to point upward. We are walking the high wire, and the risks to the downside are increasing but there are no signs of any rushed sales at the moment.

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