Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Thoughts

GM Priced at $33

Buffett to Receive Medal of Freedom?

I'm hearing that the Oracle of Omaha will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

NTAP Stinks Up the Joint

NTAP's poor numbers put a cloud over technology in the last 30 minutes.

Run, don't walk, to watch the construction of Ark Hotel in China -- in only two days.

Truly astonishing -- and probably truly dangerous!

Implied Price for GM IPO

The GM preferred, when issued, is trading at $53.50/$54.00, which implies a price for the GM common of $35.50/$36.00.

This implies a price for the GM common of $35.50-$36

Poor Economic Releases

Year-over-year core inflation rose by only 0.6% -- that's an all-time low.

And housing activity continues to scrape along the bottom, with a larger-than-expected decline in housing starts.

The economic releases this morning underscore why the Fed Reserve moved into another tranche of quantitative easing.

Year-over-year core inflation rose by only 0.6% -- that's an all-time low. The core CPI dropped modestly in October. In terms of components, only owners'-equivalent rent and transportation recorded gains, while most other components exhibited a broad-based dis-inflationary trend.

As well, housing activity continues to scrape along the bottom, with a larger-than-expected decline in housing starts (led by a sharp drop in multi-family units).

Banks Crawling Out From Under

Comerica's announcement yesterday afternoon will serve as a catalyst to better short-term performance for the banks.

CMA's announcement that it planned to double its dividend and buyback stock has gotten short shrift in the markets.

By contrast, I think it will signal and generate renewed buying interest in the stock market's most-hated sector -- banks.

Sentiment for the group, understandably, is poor, and while Comerica has an elevated capital base vis-a-vis most other banks, I believe the announcement late yesterday afternoon will serve as a catalyst to better short-term performance for the bank sector.

Tell Me Something I Don't Know

Over the next few weeks, a very large settlement will be made with the SEC by principals of a large Madoff feeder fund.

Target Is Very Upbeat

"Based on our merchandising and marketing plans, combined with the expected impact of REDcard rewards and our newly completed remodel program, we expect Target's fourth-quarter comparable-store performance will be the best of any quarter in the last three years."

-- Gregg Steinhafel, Chairman Target

TGT's management is usually quite conservative, however, this morning they are atypically upbeat about the current quarter.

The word "contagion" is back in the headlines this week.

And run, don't walk, to read Warren Buffett's letter to Uncle Sam in today's New York Times Op-Ed page. Its a gem!

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