Why is it whenever I open a magazine, turn on the tv, or browse the media's insisting that I will lose my home? No qualifications about anyone's specific situation - just an insistence it's gonna happen to ME. They're telling me to expect the vast majority of homes to be defaulted upon and everyone who has a mortgage to walk away from it.
Likely 14 million homes were bought in 2005-2007. They seem to be figuring that 50% of those mortgages will default. That's 7 million mortgages. Average mortgage $200,000. That comes to one trillion four hundred billion. Sounds big. However, we've written off more than that.
That's what needs to be focused upon! We have written off more than 50% of all homes purchased during the heyday. For investment purposes, what matters isn't the number, it is the charges against the number. And that's above the 50% threshold.
Now, 50% of the mortgages done in that period were adjustable. You are saying that 100% of the adjustable -- pick or pay all of that nonsense -- are going to default. Come now, that's too high.
But what do I know? Let's use it. The worst case is built in then.
Yet, does anyone believe in that? Maybe that's why we can rally, especially now that one of the 50-percenters, Meredith Whitney, seems to be breaking ranks....
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