Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Holding Our Recent Gains Because The House "Health Bill" Is "Dead"?

I'm with Cramer in not buying the House's version of reality on health care. I don't think Pelosi has the muscle (or votes) to get it done in the Senate. I think we're holding yesterday's gains, and maybe setting up for more gains, because the market also senses the health care bill is "dead." Given the devastating health care taxes Pelosi et. al. are talking about, if the market thought it'd pass it'd probably be down 200 points instead of flat. Again, I agree with Cramer, in that these tax increases make investing a goner, because many of the people who invest would see those marginal stock dollars go up in health care smoke.

The action's really in the Senate, and I think the Senate is not going to let this stuff happen. I don't think that health care reform is done with, I simply believe that only Medicare Advantage will get hurt - think HUM and AET - and we won't need radical tax increases to fund this one.

I think the stock market has got it right. The Senate is going to deep-six this stuff, and that's why we are rallying/holding gains.

No comments: