Thursday, June 26, 2008

Columnist Conversation
If InBev Overpays, Cuts Could Be Deeper
6/26/08 4:42 PM ET

Memo to Jim "El Capitan" Cramer
6/26/08 4:10 PM ET

6/26/08 4:03 PM ET

Petrobas' Reserves Keep Climbing--But Shares Weaken
6/26/08 3:46 PM ET

I Was Asked For My Thoughts On The Market. So Here It IS
6/26/08 3:08 PM ET

The Great Unwind
6/26/08 2:37 PM ET

Shorting the next Warren Buffett?
6/26/08 1:27 PM ET

Strong Treasury Auction
6/26/08 1:14 PM ET

re: Debt Fueled Buybacks
6/26/08 12:35 PM ET

Debt-fueled stock buybacks
6/26/08 11:36 AM ET

Using Debt To Buy Back Stock Is a Huge MIstake
6/26/08 11:25 AM ET

Weak Dollar Trade Working
6/26/08 11:08 AM ET

re: Sprint
6/26/08 10:42 AM ET

Constitution still spelled with a "C"
6/26/08 10:40 AM ET

6/26/08 10:30 AM ET

Still No Fear, Sell Small and Mid Caps
6/26/08 10:09 AM ET

Oil Up Again
6/26/08 9:34 AM ET

Dreamworks Estimates Begin To Rise
6/26/08 9:20 AM ET

How Much Lower for Citi?
6/26/08 9:10 AM ET

Thinking About Viacom
6/26/08 8:07 AM ET

Goldman Sees Whipsaw for GM, Citigroup
6/26/08 7:44 AM ET

Trading Diary Archives Print Days Entries

Disclosure Email

Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Patrick Schultz
Petrobas' Reserves Keep Climbing--But Shares Weaken
6/26/2008 3:46 PM EDT
In a Bloomberg TV interview, Brazil's President Lula da Silva says his country will triple its oil reserves from their new offshore discoveries. The tripling would bring Brazil's proved reserves to nearly 38 billion barrels and placed it in the top 10 nations for oil. Without doubt, the big winner is Petrobras (PBR:NYSE) which I discuss in my Brazil series here . But as indiscriminate global selling is hitting anything and everything that moves, shares of PBR are down a quick 12% since hitting a high of $77.61 in late May

My big question is the U.S., going to triple our reserves? I would be thrilled with just a double.

Position: none

Scott Rothbort
I Was Asked For My Thoughts On The Market. So Here It IS
6/26/2008 3:08 PM EDT
I have had several emails and IMs from people asking me what my thoughts on the market are. Here it goes:

I have not gotten the panic "get me into cash" calls from clients. That is not a good sign

The time to sell was before Memorial Day when we were nearly 10% higher. If you are an investor and are selling here then think twice.

Do some risk management. Check out some of my articles in Street University.

If your allocation to Energy + Materials + Agriculture is less than 20%, get it over that level

If you allocation to financials is greater than 10%, cut it back.

If you allocation to retail is greater than 10%, cut it back.

The political issue is creating increasing uncertainty. We have a double edged sword in many people's eyes - a current do nothing Congress/Administration or a the prospects of a less business friendly Obama. In other words we can't expect help from Washington now or in the future.

I had a respected investor look at my "model" portfolio. He said that it was a great portfolio. The lesson is that sometimes bad things happen to good stocks just like Research in Motion (RIMM) today.

If you don't understand volatility then ignore the noise being spewed on things like the VIX.

Position: RIMM - long stock

Robert Marcin
The Great Unwind
6/26/2008 2:37 PM EDT
The problem with the Great Unwind is that it's immutable. The Fed can't change it. The Administration can't. The Congress can only screw things up more. The CEOs of Merrill Lynch or Citigroup can't. Vik Bob's got nothin for us.

Unwinding a 20 year debt bubble takes lots of time if done gracefully or a ton of pain if accomplished quickly. Stop demanding that the government save us from our excesses. There is no magic bullet.

Some want lower rates, but 2% is pretty low already. Others insist that higher rates will cure all. Get a clue. There is no perfect interest rate for a leverage implosion. I'm not even sure about the impact of higher rates. Japan has a strong currency with 1% interest rates. That right there proves a 5% Fed funds rate won't necessarily strengthen the dollar.

As I wrote, prepare for a sloppy economic and market environment for a while. It could be another couple of years before we work off much of the excesses of the Debt Bubble. Get used to it.

It would be helpful if the moron politicians would agree on a beneficial energy program instead of all this useless, partisan bickering. Comrade Obama's windfall profit tax is thievery. And the Adminstration's blame on refinery capacity is just stupid. We need every bit of drilling, conservation, and alternatives that's out there. And we need it yesterday.

But, the sun will rise tomorrow. Life will grind on as we know it for the most part. However, the easy credit of the past 20 years is gone for this generation. And the consumption that accompanied it is history also. Modest stagflation is a distinct possibility, if not already here, and masked by government spin in the data. Invest your portfolio accordingly.

Position: none

No comments: