Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Weak Bounce

Although the bulls were unable to take us out at the highs, we did manage a somewhat weak, in my opinion, oversold bounce. Of course, whether or not this is a return to rationality or a sign that the market is on track to trade up again remains to be seen; the techies out there are warning the technical picture still looks quite precarious.

The S&P 500 is still below its 50-day simple moving average and there is nothing to indicate that the downtrend that's been in place since the first of the month is coming to an end. This oversold bounce could easily continue, but it's difficult to believe we can pull off another V-shaped bounce back to highs like we did in March and April. If the S&P 500 can close above the 50-day moving average and not retest today's lows for a while, there may be a foundation to build on. But at this point, there's no reason to think this market is going to quickly return to health.

Some key big-cap momentum names like AAPL and NFLX performed well, and oils bounced big, but the bounces in individual stocks weren't particularly vigorous. Stocks like PCLN, SINA and LVS still look quite poor technically.

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