We had a classic low-volume, oversold bounce off of support today, which old-time technicians might think is a potentially good short setup. Prior to June 2009, that wasn't a bad bet. But in this market, the smart move has been to buy short setups rather than sell them.
The textbook short setups haven't worked well for the bears, but you have to wonder when that might change. Logically, this is not a market that should go straight back up, especially if the U.S. dollar doesn't collapse once again. We've had clear distribution lately and plenty of repair work needs to be done to individual charts. Market players are conditioned, however, to jump in on a bounce and keep on pushing. It has worked so often that it would be foolish to rule out.
We'll see Thursday if the bulls have the juice to keep it going, but I'm more skeptical this time than I have been in the past.
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