Tuesday, March 8, 2011


Careful About Fading Roubini

Roubini's views are not as extreme as they have been in the past.

Dr. Roubini believes there could be a double dip "in the advanced economies." But he is of the view that, in light of the growth acceleration path in the U.S., that we won't double-dip but will be reaching a "stalled speed again."

But, respectfully, I don't view his statement as a contrarian spark, because most strategists are in general agreement with his conclusion!

In other words, Roubini appears to be going mainstream.

You know how I feel about Roubini, but in this case I don't think you fade him, as his view is not at all in the extremus as it has been so often (and so incorrectly) in the past.

Some comments from BAC's investor day:

* back to normalized earnings in 2013;
* bank has significant earnings power;
* still eating large costs and expenses still elevated;
* grew tangible book by 10% in 2010;
* time to grow organically.

Some more doubletalk from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in a CNBC interview on "Squawk Box" last week:

"There is no question that the momentum of this economy, leaving out the oil price issue, leaving out euro problems that have emerged, and very specifically leaving out the budget problems, this economy is really beginning to pick up momentum. ... The fascinating issue for forecasters is, how do you factor in all the negatives."

-- Alan Greenspan, CNBC interview

Whatever happened to straight talk about the state of the world?

Whatever happened to company and sector analysis?


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