Friday, November 6, 2009

Late Post - Why The Concept Of Selling The Jobs Number Would Be Incorrect

My take is that we will see job gains by the end of the year - and possibly as early as this month. The Total Unemployment rate is peaking or peaked and those waiting to buy stocks when we have an unemployment rate back below 8% again will probably pay anywhere from 50-200% higher prices than today depending on the name they are buying.

Further, my extreme variant view of well above growth consensus all year has been correct but I was worried (5-6 months ago) that the economists may get emboldened and raise Q4 and Q1 numbers too much which might present stock risk at that time.

Well we are here in Q4 and pessimism is still extremely high with many more concerned about a double dip than a dynamic growth rip.

Bottom line, the negativity bubble is still the last bubble that needs to pop and until that happens forecasts for economic growth and stock returns will likely prove to be overly pessimistic.

Case in point, after CSCO's report and commentary I figured we would see an AAPL or GOOG type reaction for them. That has not happened and the fact you can buy CSCO (which has just picked up a star in Starnet (STAR)) for under $25 is remarkable. With a defunct Nortel (NT) a crippled Alacatel Lucent (ALU) and a Juniper (JNPR) that seems reluctant to buy Ciena (CIEN) or Riverbed (RVBD) or Adtran (ADTN) or ADC Telecommunications (ADCT) -- CSCO appears green lighted for a sustained advance and should regain some of its former lost luster. And yes I do think Juniper (JNPR) should be more acquisitive as it and CSCO are in semi-oligopolistic status at this point....


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