Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Good Grief! No One Belives In This Market...

With continued help from a weak dollar, the bulls keep their winning streak going. After a gap up this morning, it looked like we were really going to catch some very strong momentum as we made a new high for the year in the S&P 500, but the dollar suddenly reversed up, and we end up drifting around for the rest of the day. It wasn't bad action at all, but once we cooled off, we couldn't regain the heat.

We had good breadth, with most major sectors except retail in the green. WMT was out with some comments today about how the holiday shopping season was likely to be tough once again, and M didn't help the sector either with some weak guidance. Gold, oil and the other weak-dollar plays prospered yet again.

The market continues to have very strong underlying bids, and the sellers just aren't getting any downside traction at all. We are a bit overbought and continue to have very mediocre volume, but the bears have no confidence.

The most notable characteristic of this market continues to be that no one seems to really believe in it. The buyers are there because they don't want to fight the trend, and the bears are just worn out from being constantly run over. It has been one of the most joyless and uncelebrated bull markets I have ever seen, but that seems to be one of the reasons it keeps on going....

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