Monday, February 2, 2009

Careening Between Rumors

While we don't have very upbeat action, we are holding support and the dip buyers keep stepping up. There just isn't anything very compelling about it, especially since we are dancing around mainly on news rumors.

We had some major outperformance by the Nasdaq today as big-cap technology names like Microsoft and Intel pushed higher for some reason that isn't very evident to me. On the other hand, energy and retail keep pressure on the S&P 500 and DJIA. Financials were mixed with banks like Bank of America continuing to struggle but Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley catching some bids.

The market is caught in a news trough right now. We know this "big bang" financial bailout plan will be announced next week and that the Senate is working on the stimulus bill but we aren't going to have the specifics for at least a week. In the meantime, we are being pushed around as new rumors circulate about potential provisions and approaches.

Technically, the market is reflecting this confused state. We are holding above the lows of January but after the failure last week, we have some pretty substantial overhead. In fact, the pattern in the Nasdaq since mid-December resembles a head-shoulders top and would look particularly ominous if we took out 1,430 or so.

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