Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Yeah, Turnaround Tuesday Again

Although the bulls tried to put their rally-caps on mid-afternoon, sellers quickly shot yet another bounce attempt down, and the major indices spend the end of the day limping into the close with average losses of 2.19% on breadth that was a little worse than 2:1 to the negative. That said, volume was pretty light, and given the fact that both the Dow and the S&P 500 have essentially waltzed right up to their 50 day moving averages over the past couple of weeks after hitting fresh lows, it’s actually encouraging to see some consolidation today.

I've been thinking that the market may see a decent run into the end of the year as seasonality acts as bear-repellant, and we’re still in a position to see that happen. The averages have put in a higher low and a higher low, and if they can hold here, have the potential to make more technical progress to the upside.

That’s the optimistic scenario. We’ve been down this road plenty of times before, and those who trusted the market to deliver some upside follow-through have been sorely disappointed.

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