Wednesday, December 3, 2008

All This Before A Probable Disappointment From The ECB Tomorrow?

The intraday swings in this market continue to be absolutely crazy, but the overall action is quite positive. We shrugged off a bunch of bad news, and the dip-buyers pounded on the sharp intraday drop. We went out at the highs on good breadth, with financials, homebuilders, biotech and chips all making a good shortage.

The most encouraging thing about this market is that we finally are seeing some stocks that are holding lows, building bases and turning up. That, combined with the inclination of the market to buy bad news and positive seasonality, bodes well into the end of the year.

The biggest negative is this crazy intraday volatility. When things swing to such a huge degree, it is extremely difficult to build a position of any size. The risk of a big loss on a quick whipsaw like we saw intraday today is going to prevent the sort of accumulation that supports big sustained upside moves.

Things are looking brighter; let's hope it stays that way after the ECB disappoints us yet again tomorrow (they should cut by AT LEAST 75 bps, but will probably only cut by 50 bps again - still a lookin' for that inflation I guess).

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