Thursday, February 21, 2008

duh - buy fear and sell giddiness

i may be going out on a limb here, but another signpost on the road to recovery may have been reached today. meredith whitney, the famed sell side analyst who called the citigroup mess well beforehand, just opined that financials have 15-50% more downside. very interesting, but i respectfully disagree. i do expect some more writeoffs - although less than the experts expect - and also some more dilutive capital infusions. some are saying resist the ongoing calls to bottom fish the space on fed rate cuts. again, i respectfully disagree - fed rate cuts will go a long way towards fixing banks' balance sheets - those that need fixing by the way - and i believe banks like c and the like will only trade down to 1x book value. in c's case, that's about 23 or 24, or about another 5% from here. and c's probably the most hated bank stock out there - others are probably more "safe," whatever that means. my belief is to buy them now - even c (but be a big boy and do your own DD!)

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