Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Some Tech Stuff

Well, BRCD is getting crushed again for just producing a pretty good quarter. They guided a bit soft but so does everyone these days. I personally wouldn't make too much of the muted guide. They are in good subsectors and CSCO won't kill them. I really liked the FDRY deal when it was done by BRCD, which greatly improved BRCD's balance sheet. However, FDRY now makes up a good share of BRCD's total sales and FDRY is notoriously lumpy in delivering sales which was a reason the market never valued them richly. Let's just add BRCD to the list of Tech names that are growing in that 12-15% range with a PEG under 1.  I would be more aggressive in the low $5's and a seller in the high $6's or low $7's.

How about a healthcare proposal?  Let's get leadership from ACN, IBM, AAPL, CSCO, HON and MMM (essentially efficiency and innovation experts) all in a room for one day and let them figure out the first 5 things they would fix first in our our healthcare system. Then address these 5 things, let things play out for 18 months and then do it again and tackle the next 5 and so on.

Goldman's technology conference starts this week. Maybe that will shake things up a little bit as most of the key players are in attendence......GOOG will be talking to China shortly, about "should I stay or should I go now..."; I'm going to be watching BIDU closely.

As for some random thoughts on tech, there is no differentiation yet back in the market.  This is negative.  GS is up; that is a positive.  Is it time to add GS, GOOG and AAPL again?  Selling windows are closing; tech conferences are coming, including the aforementioned GS's.  The technicals in the market (seem to be) lining up.  So, to answer my own question, yes I think it's time! 

The market is down this much on consumer confidence?  Let's be real now; I think it's a futures-driven sell program into a thin market that will run its course in hours to days.  If GOOG gets back to China (they never left of course), that could be a fulcrum event for the whole market.  It may pay to be short BIDU by then.....

long AAPL

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