Sunday, February 19, 2012

Many market players didn't want to do much ahead of the long weekend, with the possibility of more news coming out of Greece while the market is closed Monday.

But the old adage about not shorting a dull market came to life and the market held up. The bulls may not have wanted to do a lot of buying, but they did more than enough to keep the bears from gaining traction.

Once again, underlying support is remarkably strong, and one mild dip was well bought. There wasn't a lot of major strength, and Nasdaq breadth was even, but the price action could not be faulted.

Dow 13,000 talk is heating up again. I expect to hear that kind of chatter as the market tops; it's a sign of overconfidence and complacency.

On the other hand, it has been very easy to make bearish arguments for quite a while, even though they haven't mattered. Until there is an actual change in the price action, the arguments are irrelevant, even dangerous.

On Tuesday morning, we'll likely be reacting to Greece one way or another. Some sort of deal will give the market short-term support, but in the long run, we know that it is a matter of time before Greece is in trouble again.

I suspect that Europe will eventually be the catalyst for a market turn, but they are doing a good job of kicking the can down the road and preventing the overanxious bears from gaining a foothold.